Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Top Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now

Boeing shares fell 2.5% at midday Monday after safety concerns arose over the weekend that put pressure on the stock. The stock helped drag the Dow Jones industrial average lower and was the biggest loser of the 30 stocks making up the blue-chip index.

A Malaysia Airlines' Boeing 777 disappeared early Saturday with 239 people aboard. The fate of the jet remained a mystery Monday after investigators said oil slicks off the coast of Vietnam were not linked to the flight.

Separately, Boeing said Friday that it had discovered hairline cracks on the wings of 42 Dreamliner 787 jets that are being built. No cracks were found in the 122 planes already delivered.

The company said the problem stemmed from changes in the manufacturing process at a Tokyo-based supplier, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and could result in delivery delays.

Top Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now: Bonavista Energy Corp (BNPUF.PK)

Bonavista Energy Corporation (Bonavista) is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas assets. The Company operates approximately 87% of its assets which are concentrated within three core regions in western Canada. Each core region contains a well-balanced portfolio of oil and natural gas assets with considerable opportunities. Its operations are geographically focused within three regions of Western Canada, which includes Western region, Northern region and Eastern region. The Company�� subsidiaries include Bonavista Petroleum (BP), Bonavista Energy LP (BELP) and Bonavista Energy Inc. (BEI). Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Stephan Dube]

    Cold Lake's most notable producers:

    Husky Energy (HUSK.PK), see article here.Pengrowth Energy Corporation (PGH), see article here.Southern Pacific Resource (STPJF.PK), see article here.Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), see article here.Devon Energy (DVN), see article here.Imperial Oil (IMO), see article here.Baytex, see article here.Bonavista Energy (BNPUF.PK), see article here.

    Athabasca's most notable producers:

Top Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now: Emerge Energy Services LP (EMES)

Emerge Energy Services LP, incorporated on April 27, 2012, owns, operates, acquires and develops a diversified portfolio of energy service assets. The Company operates in two segments: Sand segment, and Fuel Processing and Distribution segment. Sand segment consists of mining and processing frac sand, a component used in hydraulic fracturing of oil and natural gas wells. The Company�� frac sand facilities are located in New Auburn, Wisconsin, Barron County, Wisconsin and Kosse, Texas. Fuel Processing and Distribution segment consists of acquiring, processing and separating the transmix that results when multiple types of refined petroleum products are transported sequentially through a pipeline. The Company�� Fuel Processing and Distribution segment consists of its operations in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area and Birmingham, Alabama.

Sand Segment

The Company�� Wisconsin sand reserves at its New Auburn and Barron facilities provide the Company access to a range of sand that meets or exceeds all API specifications and includes a concentration of 16/30, 20/40 and 30/50 mesh sands. The Company�� New Auburn dry plant facility has a rated production capacity of 4,200 tons per day, or roughly 40 rail cars, and has on-site rail car loading facilities capable of loading up to approximately 10,000 tons of frac sand into rail cars per day. The Company also has 4.5 miles of existing rail track that connects its facility to the Union Pacific rail line and provides the Company with shipping access to all of the shale basins in the United States and Canada with direct access to areas of oil production in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and the western United States. The Company�� Barron facility consists of a sand mine and a wet plant on land. This facility has a rated production capacity of 8,800 tons per day, or roughly 80 rail cars, and has on-site rail car loading facilities capable of loading up to approximately 10,000 tons of frac sand into rail cars per day. The Company ! also mine frac sand at its facility in Kosse, Texas that is processed into a high-quality, 100 mesh frac sand, generally used in dry gas drilling applications.

Fuel Processing and Distribution Segment

The transmix industry consists of businesses that process and separate transportation mixture, which is the liquid interface, or fuel mixture, that forms when multiple types of petroleum products are transported sequentially through a pipeline. Pipeline operators send large batches of different fuel products (such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel) through the same pipeline, in sequence, to receiving terminals. The Company�� Fuel Processing and Distribution segment consists of its facilities in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area and in Birmingham, Alabama, which are operated by Direct Fuels and AEC, respectively.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Robert Rapier]

    A friend of mine recently had $5,000 he wanted to invest, and asked what I thought about Emerge Energy Services (NYSE: EMES). He wasn�� familiar with how master limited partnerships are structured, or with the tax implications of investing in an MLP. With the tax season upon us, many of you are dealing with these issues right now. Some of you may be considering your first MLP. But you need to be sure you understand the trade-offs associated with MLP investing.

  • [By Kyle Woodley]

    That won�� always be the case. I think Jon Markman and Best Stocks leader Emerge Energy Services LP (EMES) will be smelling Tesla�� nonexistent fumes when the ball drops to bring in 2015.

  • [By Aimee Duffy]

    May�
    We had two MLP IPOs in May. First up was Emerge Energy Services (NYSE: EMES  ) , which hit the books on May 9, and is up 16% already. The partnership has a sand segment and a fuel processing and distribution segment, which engages primarily in the separation of transmix.

Hot Undervalued Companies To Watch In Right Now: MEG Energy Corp (MEGEF.PK)

MEG Energy Corp. is a Canada-based oil sands company focused on in situ development and production in the southern Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta. The Company has identified two steam assisted gravity drainage projects, the Christina Lake project and the Surmont project. The Company owns a 100% interest in over 900 sections of oil sands leases in the Athabasca region of northern Alberta and is primarily engaged in a steam assisted gravity drainage oil sands development at its 80 section Christina Lake Regional Project (Christina Lake Project). The development includes co-ownership of Access Pipeline, a dual pipeline to transport diluent north from the Edmonton area to the Athabasca oil sands area and a blend of bitumen and diluent south from the Christina Lake Project into the Edmonton area. Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Stephan Dube]

    Athabasca's most notable producers:

    Suncor Energy (SU) (Part 1), see article here.Suncor Energy (Part 2), see article here.Athabasca Oil (ATHOF.PK), see article here.Canadian Natural Resources, see article here.Imperial Oil, see article here.Cenovus Energy (CVE), see article here.MEG Energy (MEGEF.PK), see article here.Devon Energy, see article here.Royal Dutch Shell, see article here.Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN), see article here.Nexen (CNOOC) (CEO), see article here.

    An analysis of the current operations of the company will be examined with the objective to provide the most complete information available to potential investors before deciding to seize the opportunity that the 54,132 square miles of the Carbonate Triangle has to offer. Let's start by introducing Athabasca, a famous and most prolific region in the Canadian oil sands as well as one of the largest reserve in the world.

Top Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now: San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (the Trust) is an express trust created by the San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Indenture, between Southland Royalty Company (Southland Royalty) and The Fort Worth National Bank. The Trustee of the Trust is Compass Bank. The function of the Trustee is to collect the net proceeds attributable to the Royalty (Royalty Income), to pay all expenses and charges of the Trust and distribute the remaining available income to the Unit Holders. The Royalty conveyed to the Trust was carved out of Burlington Resources Oil & Gas Company LP�� (Burlington) working interests and royalty interests in certain properties situated in the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico.

Burlington is the principal operator of the Underlying Properties. A percentage of the Royalty Income is attributable to the production and sale by Burlington of natural gas from the Underlying Properties. The Underlying Properties are primarily gas producing properties. The Underlying Properties consist of working interests, royalty interests, overriding royalty interests and other contractual rights in 151,900 gross (119,000 net) producing acres in San Juan, Rio Arriba and Sandoval Counties of northwestern New Mexico and 4,015 gross (1,158.5 net) wells. Gas produced in the San Juan Basin is sold in both interstate and intrastate commerce. Gas production from the properties totaled 32,580,756 million cubic feet (Mcf), during the year ended December 31, 2012. Gas produced from the Underlying Properties is processed at one of the five plants: Chaco, Val Verde, Milagro, Ignacio, and Kutz, all located in the San Juan Basin. Gas produced from the Underlying Properties and processed at Kutz is being sold under three separate contracts with Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Shell Energy North America (US), LP (Shell) and New Mexico Gas Company, Inc. (NMGC).

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Duprey]

    San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: SJT  ) announced yesterday its July monthly distribution of $0.080643�per unit, based principally upon production during the month of April.

Top Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now: Essar Energy Plc (ESSR)

Essar Energy plc is a holding company. The Company is an energy company with assets across the power and oil and gas industries. The Company operates in the areas petroleum refining and marketing, exploration and production and power transmission and generation. The Refining and Marketing business in India comprises of the Vadinar refinery located on the west coast of India and a retail franchise network of around 1,400 fuel stations across India and the Refining, and Marketing business in the United Kingdom comprises of the Stanlow refinery located near Liverpool, north west England and on the south bank of Manchester ship canal. The Company�� exploration and production segment includes a portfolio of 15 blocks and fields in the various stages of exploration and production of oil and gas in India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Vietnam. In Power segment, the Company operates coal fired, captive fuel and gas based power plants in India and Canada together with a number of mining assets. Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sarah Jones]

    Essar Energy Plc (ESSR) climbed 2.5 percent to 122 pence after reporting that revenue rose 24 percent to $27.3 billion in the 12 months through March. The company cited higher margins and volumes at its Vadinar refinery in India and its Stanlow refinery in the U.K.

Top Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now: Endeavour International Corp (END)

Endeavour International Corporation (Endeavour), incorporated on January 13, 2000, is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development and acquisition of energy reserves in the United States and United Kingdom. The Company has three producing fields in the United Kingdom, including Alba, Bacchus and Bittern, as well as a number of development projects including Rochelle and Columbus. In the United States, the Company has production in the Haynesville and Marcellus, as well as two oil frontier plays in Colorado and Montana. As of December 31, 2012, Endeavour had proved reserves of 71,591 million cubic feet (MMcf) of natural gas and 13,739 thousands of barrels (Mbbls) of crude oil for a combined 25.7 million barrels of oil equivalent (MBOE).

The North Sea is a resource area where it has a development project, producing properties and additional exploration licenses. During 2012, Alba production volumes were impacted by water handling issues. As of December 31, 2012, it held a 30% working interest in its Bacchus field asset, which is operated by Apache Corporation, who owns a 50% working interest. In April and July 2012, it achieved production from the first and second development wells, respectively, on the Bacchus field. The Company�� working interest in the Rochelle area is 44% and it is the operator of the field, which is comprised of Blocks 15/26b, 15/26c and 15/27. Its United States activity has targeted reserve and production growth in shale gas plays, including the Louisiana Haynesville and Pennsylvania Marcellus areas.

The Company is also targeting emerging oil-prone and liquids-rich plays, including the Montana Heath oil play and its new interests in the Colorado Niobrara area. The Company operates and controls the Marcellus assets while retaining a 50% position in its remaining producing Haynesville acreage. The Company has 19 Haynesville Units which held by production with an estimated over 80 remaining gross locations to be developed, dep! ending on development well spacing. The Company has interests in approximately 88,900 net acres in the emerging Heath Shale oil play in Montana, primarily in Rosebud and Garfield Counties.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jake L'Ecuyer]

    Energy shares dropped by 0.26 percent in the US market today. Among the sector stocks, Endeavour International (NYSE: END) was down more than 5.6 percent, while Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX) tumbled around 2.2 percent.

  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Endeavour International Corp. (NYSE: END) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

    Endo Health Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: ENDP) was downgraded to Sell from an already cautious Neutral rating at Janney.

Top Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now: Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)

Diamondback Energy, Inc., incorporated on December 30, 2011, is an independent oil and natural gas company. The Company is focused on the acquisition, development, exploration and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The Company is the operator of Janey 16H in Upton County with a 3,842 foot lateral in the Wolfcamp B interval. During the year ended December 31, 2012, the Janey 16H had produced a total of 48 thousand barrels of oil and 62 million cubic feet of natural gas. As of December 31, 2012, the Company had drilled 193 gross (176 net) wells, and participated in an additional 18 gross (eight net) non-operated wells, in the Permian Basin. Of these 211 gross wells, 191 were completed as producing wells and 20 were in various stages of completion. In the aggregate, as of December 31, 2012, it held interests in 225 gross (201 net) producing well in the Permian Basin.

The Company�� activities are primarily focused on the Clearfork, Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Cline, Strawn and Atoka formations, which it refers to collectively as the Wolfberry play. The Wolfberry play is characterized by high oil and liquids rich natural gas, multiple vertical and horizontal target horizons, extensive production history, long-lived reserves and high drilling success rates. The Wolfberry play is a modification and extension of the Spraberry play, the majority of which is designated in the Spraberry Trend area field. As of December 31, 2012, its estimated proved oil and natural gas reserves were 40,210 million barrels of oil equivalent based on a reserve report prepared by Ryder Scott Company L.P. (Ryder Scott), its independent reserve engineers. Of these reserves, approximately 29.5% are classified as proved developed producing, (PDP). Proved undeveloped (PUD), reserves included in this estimate are from 306 vertical gross well locations on 40-acre spacing and four gross horizontal well locations. As of December 31, 2012, these proved reserves wer! e approximately 65% oil, 21% natural gas liquids and 14% natural gas.

The Company had have 881 identified potential vertical drilling locations on 40-acre spacing based on its evaluation of applicable geologic and engineering data as of December 31, 2012, and had an additional 1,118 identified potential vertical drilling locations based on 20-acre downspacing. It also has identified 731 potential horizontal drilling locations in multiple horizons on its acreage. The Company�� second horizontal well, Kemmer 4209H in Midland County is a non-operated well in which the Company owns a 47% working interest. In 2012, the Kemmer 4209H produced a total of 41 thousand barrels of oil and 45 million cubic feet of natural gas. In addition to the Janey and Kemmer wells, as of February 28, 2013, the Company had three additional horizontal wells in Midland County and four horizontal wells in Upton County in various stages of development. In Midland County, it drilled the ST25-1H well (83% working interest) with a lateral length of 4,617 feet.

In Upton County, the Company drilled three additional wells, the Neal 8-1H (100% working interest) with a lateral length of 7,652 feet, the Neal 8-2H (100% working interest) with a lateral length of 6,658 feet and the Janey 3H (100% working interest) with a lateral length of 4,629 feet. It completed a 32 stage frac on the Neal 8-1H well in January 2013. As of February 26, 2013, flowback operations were underway and for the last seven days the well averaged 806 barrel of oil equivalent per day with a peak rate of 871 barrel of oil equivalent per day with an 85% oil component.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Diamondback Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

    Diamond Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) was raised to Buy from Hold at BB&T Capital Markets.

Top Oil Stocks To Watch Right Now: Whitecap Resources Inc (SPGYF.PK)

Whitecap Resources Inc., formerly Spitfire Energy Ltd., is engaged in the exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids in Western Canada. The Company�� activities are concentrated primarily in Northwest Central Alberta and Southwest Saskatchewan. On July 1, 2010, the Company amalgamated with its wholly owned subsidiary Whitecap Resources Inc. During fiscal 2010, the Company produced an average of 355 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed). On July 12, 2010, the Company entered into an agreement to acquire a private company. The primary assets to be acquired are located in the Pembina region of west central Alberta with production and reserves focused in the Cardium formation. In October 2013, the Company announced that it has completed the acquisition of a Cardium light oil property and a working interest consolidation of its Eagle Lake Viking unit. Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Caiman Valores]

    The recent surge in oil prices has renewed investor interest in the small-cap oil and gas E&P sector. One company that stands out for all the right reasons is Canadian domiciled small-cap, Whitecap Resources (SPGYF.PK). Since 2009 the company has unlocked considerable value for investors through a range of acquisitions as well as development and exploration projects. This has seen its share price surge in value to be up by almost 53% over the last year alone. However, it is clear that the market has yet to fully recognize the true value of Whitecap and there is still considerable upside potential of over 30% for investors. This along with Whitecap's dividend growth strategy makes it a particularly appealing deep-value investment in the oil and gas E&P sector.

Monday, April 28, 2014

Sell Cisco And Buy Alcatel Lucent Instead

Organizing supplies behemoth Cisco Systems (CSCO) has run into agitated times recently. Cisco had diminished its long haul development direction a year ago and there were apprehensions that it could be losing its business in the developing markets. In addition, the resurgence of Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) appears to have further started apprehensions around Cisco speculators that the organization is losing its balance in the business sector. However is there a turnaround story in sight for Cisco? I don't think so. I will let you know the reasons why I think Cisco is a terrible financing, yet first we should investigate the organization's business.

Move In Progress

Cisco is transitioning from offering fittings like the majority of its companions to offering business results. The organization has sent almost $180 billion value of system supplies overall and the organization needs to influence this solid introduce base to make new fortunes.

Cisco's cloud organizing stage, Meraki, is likewise doing exceptionally well, developing in excess of 100% year-over-year and multiplying clients from 4,300 one quarter back to 9,600 in this quarter. The Meraki and Sourcefire acquisitions keep on performing admirably and have enhanced Cisco's position as a heading security organization, the one and only equipped for conveying an end-to-end compositional methodology.

Cisco is additionally concentrated on conveying worth to shareholders. In Q4 Fy12, Cisco had resolved to give back at least half of its free money stream yearly through profits and offer repurchases. In monetary 2013, it returned in excess of half of free money stream, and in the first a large portion of financial 2014, it returned more than 150% of free money stream to its shareholders.

Cisco's board has affirmed an expansion of $0.02 to the quarterly profit to $0.19 for every offer, an increment of around 12%, speaking to a yield of give or take 3.50%. This profit expansion, joined together with the foreseen offer repurchases in the second a large portion of the monetary year, would agreeably surpass a return of in excess of 100% for the full financial year of its free money stream.

Why Investors Should Stay Away

In any case there are sure things that go against Cisco. Generally, I accept Cisco has lost its path under CEO John Chambers. The organization's offer value has been very nearly stagnant in the most recent 10 years, failing to meet expectations the S&p 500 by a tremendous edge. The rich profit, which now has a yield of 3.50% on account of the falling offer value, has backed Cisco's offer or else it would've dove further. Also, the organization has constantly attempted to reimburse speculators by the method for offer buybacks and has used harshly $72 billion simultaneously.

Cisco has further chosen to acquire $8 billion through a bond deal to encourage offer buyback. While bulls may contend it is a great methodology given the low rate of investment, I don't think it will end up being gainful. Buybacks are useful for speculators, yet I accept Cisco is in urgent need of enhancing its income. The organization ought to utilize this money to create new business and buybacks don't make any sort of new income streams, and existing portions are seeing disturbing decreases in income as seen underneath:

Segment

Q1FY14

(in millions)

Q2FY14

(in millions)

Sequential Growth

Switching

$3,754

$3,271

-13%

NGN Routing

$2,043

$1,741

-15%

Service Provider Video

$987

$957

-3%

Collaboration

$1,027

$881

-14%

Data Center

$601

$605

1%

Wireless

$540

$511

-5%

Security

$365

$393

8%

Other

$80

$64

-20%

As should be obvious, Cisco's incomes over all portions are falling and the organization can't keep purchasing back shares for eternity. The organization needs to discover better approaches to enhance its business as opposed to using luxuriously on buyback programs.

The imperativeness of a developing business can't be disregarded as Cisco has fallen prey to its rivals. For example, the switch business was a key fragment for the organization. Be that as it may, it has surrendered piece of the pie to more modest adversaries like Alcatel-Lucent and Juniper (JNPR). Alcatel-Lucent's income has become reliably in the most recent three years. The impact of a productive CEO is obviously obvious as Alcatel-Lucent has enhanced essentially in the most recent one year.

Alcatel-Lucent has seen twofold digit income development under the initiative of Michel Combes and is looking to get gainful on a feasible foundation by 2015. Alcatel's switch business has likewise enhanced incredibly and ought to keep on growing as the organization has tie-ups with a lot of people enormous name telecom players like AT&T (T) and China Mobile (CHL) for their 4g LTE system advancement.

Juniper then again, is more laid open to the switch business. The organization determines almost half of its income from switches and despite the fact that it is a much littler organization than Cisco, its deals have enhanced reliably. Truth be told, the organization conveyed record income of $1.27 billion, up 12% year-over-year, in the most recent reported quarter.

Conclusion

Cisco is looking to show signs of improvement in the long run yet it confronts impending tests. As I would see it, I think Cisco ought to think about putting resources into developing its business as opposed to using excessively on buybacks. The organization is confronting rivalry from different opponents, for example, Alcatel and Juniper, which makes speculation in development activities considerably more essential. Cisco had cut its development conjecture before the end of last year, and this is an alternate motivation behind why moguls ought to stay far from the stock.

Currently 3.00/512345

Rating: 3.0/5 (2 votes)

Voters:
Email FeedsSubscribe via Email RSS FeedsSubscribe RSS Comments EnjoylifeEnjoylife premium member - 8 hours ago

Is this article a joke?

sam.deanjSam.deanj - 8 hours ago

Excellent analysis and too the point. Too bad I can't give ya 10 stars

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Sunday, April 27, 2014

Chipotle Is A Tasty Bet For The Long Run

Despite increasing competition and diet-conscious customers, the restaurant industry's sales have been rising . In 2 years, annual restaurant sales have almost tripled from $232.3 billion to $586 billion and are projected to reach $684 billion in 2014. This growth has led various restaurants to increase their footprint by increasing their restaurant chains, with many new players also entering this market.

For those who like to opt in food and beverages segment stocks, can always look at Chipotle (CMG) and Cheesecake (CAKE). Both these companies are recording growth. These two are established players as well.

Chipotle is currently on a growth run as a result of efforts to modify its food menu and is also expanding its chain of the restaurants globally. The traffic at Chipotle seems to be increasing, which is helping its growth. Fiscal 2013 was all growth for Chipotle. It expanded its chain by adding 185 new restaurants and recorded a total revenue of $3.21 billion, up by 17.7% from the previous year. The bottom line was also impressive, coming in at $327.4 million, up by 17.8%.

The growth momentum has continued in the first quarter of 2014, with Chipotle adding 44 new restaurants and recording revenue of $904.2 million, up by 24.4% from the same quarter last year. Compared with the year ago quarter, comparable restaurant sales were up by 13.4% and net income was $83.1 million, up by 8.5%.

As the growth continues, it is focused on "food with integrity" that resonates well with its customers. Moreover, its announcement about eliminating genetically modified organisms, or GMOs, from its food by the end of 2014 has been received well by health-conscious consumers as well as investors. For 2014, it has plans to open 180-195 restaurants to sustain the growth trajectory.

Chipotles is known for using fresh ingredients. But, over the years, the prices of the fresh ingredients has been constantly rising . This does effect the margins and the earnings of the company. To offset this, it plans to increase prices in the menu to boost its profits in the future. The share price of Chipotle was pushed down due to profits being hit by an increase in ingredient costs. The price rise in the menu is certainly good news for the investors and I can fore see a better bottom line in the future.

The anticipated price rise would be in mid-single digits (~5%) by the end of the quarter. This will certainly offset the rising food cost for the burrito chain. A 5% increase would raise the cost of Chipotle's chicken burrito from $7.81 to about $8.20 in New York. Most consumers probably won't even notice because the price hikes will only amount to a few dollars and cents.

Although stock price did fall as the news of price hike was aired, but this is a temporary fall and the patient investors are always the winners.

Conclusion

Chipotle has been constantly expanding its outlets and at an impressive growth rate. So, it seems to be a good bet for investors.

Currently 1.00/512345

Rating: 1.0/5 (1 vote)

Voters:
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Saturday, April 26, 2014

Top 5 Tech Companies To Buy For 2015

In advance of Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) launch of the iPhone 5c and 5s in China, the technology giant has cut the price of the phones for the Chinese market.

Apple’s China website has prices listed at 4,938 yuan for the iPhone 5s and 4,138 yuan for the 5c, marking a 350 yuan price cut from both prices. In Hong Kong, Apple has cut the prices by HK$390 to HK$5,198 for the 5s and HK$4,298 for the the 5c.

Apple’s iPhones are expected to launch in China on January 17. Apple and China Mobile made a deal last month for the Chinese phone company to start carrying Apple’s phones.

Top 5 Tech Companies To Buy For 2015: In-Touch Survey Systems Ltd (INX)

In-Touch Survey Systems Ltd. is engaged in designing, developing and implementing of data capture technologies and services for business to consumer (B2C) companies. The Company does business as Service Intelligence, In-Touch Insight Systems and IMS division. In-Touch Insight Systems (EDC) develops managed mobile software technology and services for business to consumer (B2C), business to business (B2B), governments and regulators. In-Touch has developed a software platform, In- Touch Apps that provides for the development of data collection programs, mobile forms creations and real-time online reporting for its customers. Service Intelligence (MDC) provides onsite audit and Mystery Shopping services to B2C companies in Canada and the United States. The IMS division, which provides enterprise software engineering services to the Canadian Federal Government. Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Henry Lee]

    After hitting a fresh high of nearly 1900 on April 4, the S&P 500 (INX) closed last Friday at 1816 ��a 4.3% drop in just one week. We��e seen a bit of a rebound, but the worst week in two years rattled investors. Nasdaq (IXIC) got close to a 10% drop from its March high, which would make it an official ��orrection����a nice word that masks the pain many investors are feeling.

Top 5 Tech Companies To Buy For 2015: Vmware Inc.(VMW)

VMware, Inc. provides virtualization and virtualization-based cloud infrastructure solutions in the United States and internationally. The company?s products address planned and unplanned downtime management, system recoverability and reliability, backup and recovery, resource provisioning and management, capacity and performance management, and security issues. Its cloud infrastructure products and technologies include VMware vSphere, which is a data center platform that also enables live migration of actively running virtual machines across servers or storage locations without disruption or downtime; enables availability for all applications against hardware and operating system failures; and enables centralized point of control for cluster-level networking, as well as automatically manages the placement and balancing of a virtual machine across storage resources. The company also offers cloud application platform solutions that help organizations build, run, and manage enterprise applications in public, private, or hybrid clouds optimized for vSphere. In addition, it provides end-user computing solutions, which provide secure access to applications and data from various devices and location, as well as serves the corporate IT departments through managing and connecting end-user assets delivering them as a managed service. The company?s end-user computing solutions also provide the ability to manage software as a service, Windows, Mobile, or enterprise applications, as well as enhance communication and collaboration between end users. Further, it provides a range of professional services, such as consulting, education, and technical account manager services, as well as customer support services. The company sells its products through distributors, resellers, system vendors, and systems integrators. VMware, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California. VMware, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of EMC Corporation.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sue Chang]

    VMware Inc. (VMW) is expected to report earnings of 82 cents a share in the third quarter.

  • [By Roberto Pedone]

     

    Another potential earnings short-squeeze candidate is VMware (VMW), which provides virtualization infrastructure solutions in the U.S. and internationally. VMware is set to release numbers on Tuesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect the company to report revenue of $1.35 billion on earnings of 79 cents per share.

     

     

    Just recently, CLSA upgraded shares of VMware to outperform on expectations the company is best positioned to capitalize on the software defined data center segment. The firm raised its price target on the stock to $115 a share from $99 a share.

     

    The current short interest as a percentage of the float for VMware is very high at 23%. That means that out of the 80.64 million shares in the tradable float, 18.46 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 1.5%, or by about 272,000 shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a strong quarter, then shares of VMW could easily surge sharply higher post-earnings as the shorts jump to cover some of their positions.

     

    From a technical perspective, VMware is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending for the last three months, with shares moving higher from its low of $86.88 to its recent high of $112.89 a share. During that move, shares of VMW have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.

     

    If you're bullish on VMW, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $104.50 to $107.50 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 2.43 million shares. If that breakout kicks off post-earni

Hot European Companies To Invest In Right Now: Vonage Holdings Corp.(VG)

Vonage Holdings Corp. provides broadband communication services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company offers voice and messaging services through session initiation protocol (SIP) based voice over Internet protocol network. The company?s primary product offering is Vonage World, a residential plan with unlimited calling domestically and to approximately 60 countries, including India, Mexico, and China for a flat monthly rate. It also provides broadband telephone replacement services to residential, small office, and home office customers through various service plans with a range of basic features, including call waiting, caller ID with name, call forwarding, and voicemail. In addition, the company offers mobile services through mobile applications that can be downloaded for iPhone, iPad, iPod touch, and Android OS devices. Further, the company provides Vonage Mobile, a free downloadable mobile application that provides free calling and messagi ng between users who have the application, as well as traditional paid international calling to any other phone. It markets its services through in-bound telemarketing and online direct sales, as well as through regional and national retailers. As of December 31, 2011, the company had approximately 2.4 million subscriber lines. Vonage Holdings Corp. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Holmdel, New Jersey.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Smith]

    Holmdel, N.J.-based Vonage (NYSE: VG  ) has a new Chief Financial Officer.

    On Friday, Vonage closed out the trading week with an announcement that it's hired away David T. Pearson from Deutsche Bank�to become its new Treasurer and CFO. At Deutsche, Pearson spent nine years working as a managing director and head of the bank's Global Media & Telecom Group. Before that, he worked in Goldman Sachs' Technology, Media & Telecommunications�group.

  • [By Alex Planes]

    Investors love stocks that consistently beat the Street without getting ahead of their fundamentals and risking a meltdown. The best stocks offer sustainable market-beating gains, with robust and improving financial metrics that support strong price growth. Does Vonage Holdings (NYSE: VG  ) fit the bill? Let's take a look at what its recent results tell us about its potential for future gains.

  • [By Tim Beyers]

    If Vonage (NYSE: VG  ) has its way, the days of AT&T (NYSE: T  ) , Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) , and their big-carrier peers controlling the way area codes are assigned are coming to an end.

Top 5 Tech Companies To Buy For 2015: Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc (ASX)

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc. is principally engaged in the manufacture, assembly, processing, testing and distribution of integrated circuits (ICs). The Company provides semiconductor packaging and testing services, including plastic leaded chip carriers (PLCCs), quad flat packages (QFPs) and flip chip packaging technology, among others, which are applied in the manufacture of household electrical appliances, communication devices, automobile components, personal computers, set top boxes, servers, memory integrated circuits (ICs), mobile phones, digital cameras, game consoles, projectors, high definition (HD) televisions, wireless communication network products and power management ICs, among others. The Company operates its businesses primarily in Taiwan, Europe and the Americas. In August 2010, the Company acquired a 100% interest in EEMS Test Singapore.

The Company is focused on packaging and testing logic semiconductors. The Company offers its customers turnkey services, which consist of packaging, testing and direct shipment of semiconductors to end users designated by its customers. The Company�� global base of over 200 customers includes semiconductor companies across a range of end use applications, including Altera Corporation, ATI Technologies, Inc., Broadcom Corporation, Cambridge Silicon Radio Limited and Microsoft Corporation. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company�� packaging revenues accounted for 77.7% of its net revenues and its testing revenues accounted for 20.1% of its net revenues.

Packaging Services

The Company offers a range of package types to meet the requirements of its customers, with a focus on packaging solutions. Within its portfolio of package types, the Company focuses on the packaging of semiconductors. These include advanced leadframe-based package types, such as quad flat package, thin quad flat package, bump chip carrier and quad flat no-lead package, and package types based on substrates, such a! s flip-chip ball grid array (BGA) and other BGA types, as well as other packages, such as wafer-bumping products. Leadframe-based packages are packaged by connecting the die, using wire bonders, to the leadframe with gold wire. The Company�� leadframe-based packages include quad flat package (QFP)/ thin quad flat package (TQFP), quad flat no-lead package (QFN)/microchip carrier (MCC), advanced quad flat no-lead package (AQFN), bump chip carrier (BCC), small outline plastic package (SOP)/thin small outline plastic package (TSOP), small outline plastic j-bend package (SOJ), plastic leaded chip carrier (PLCC) and plastic dual in-line package (PDIP). Substrate-based packages employ the BGA design, which utilizes a substrate rather than a leadframe. It also assembles system-in-a-package products, which involve the integration of more than one chip into the same package. The Company�� substrate-based packages include Plastic BGA, Cavity Down BGA, Stacked-Die BGA, Flip-Chip BGA and land grid array (LGA).

The Company�� wafer-level packaging products include wafer level chip scale package (aCSP) and advanced wafer level package (aWLP). The Company offers module assembly services, which combine one or more packaged semiconductors with other components in an integrated module to enable functionality, typically using surface mount technology (SMT) machines and other machinery and equipment for system-level assembly. End use applications for modules include cellular phones, personal digital assistant (PDAs), wireless local area network (LAN) applications, bluetooth applications, camera modules, automotive applications and toys.

The Company provides module assembly services primarily at its facilities in Korea for radio frequency and power amplifier modules used in wireless communications and automotive applications. Interconnect materials connect the input/output on the semiconductor dies to the printed circuit board. Interconnect materials include substrate, which is a multi-layer m! iniature ! printed circuit board. The Company produces substrates for use in its packaging operations.

Testing Services

The Company provides a range of semiconductor testing services, including front-end engineering testing, wafer probing, final testing of logic/mixed-signal/radio frequency (RF) and memory semiconductors and other test-related services. The Company provides front-end engineering testing services, including customized software development, electrical design validation, and reliability and failure analysis. The Company provides final testing services for a variety of memory products, such as static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), single-bit erasable programmable read-only memory semiconductors and flash memory semiconductors.

The Company provides a range of additional test-related services, including burn-in testing, module sip testing, dry pack, tape and reel, and electric interface board and mechanical test tool design. The Company offers drop shipment services for shipment of semiconductors directly to end users designated by its customers.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jeff Reeves]

    Advanced Semiconductor Engineering�(ASX) builds and distributes integrated circuits and other electronics. It�� not as sexy as some mobile chipmakers, but thankfully it doesn�� have to be — ASX is simply capitalizing on the general demand for microchips in everything from cars to computers to TVs.

  • [By Alexis Xydias]

    The FTSE 100 Index (UKX) gained 53.93 points, or 0.8 percent, to 6,683.93 at 8:58 a.m. in London, rebounding from a 1.4 percent loss yesterday. The benchmark has rallied 13 percent this year as central banks around the world commit to maintain monetary stimulus to nurture economic growth. The broader FTSE All-Share Index (ASX) increased 0.8 percent today, while Ireland�� ISEQ Index advanced 0.5 percent.

Top 5 Tech Companies To Buy For 2015: Veeco Instruments Inc.(VECO)

Veeco Instruments Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets various equipments to make light emitting diodes (LEDs) and hard-disk drives worldwide. The company?s LED and Solar segment designs and manufactures metal organic chemical vapor deposition and molecular beam epitaxy systems and components for the manufacturers of LEDs, wireless devices, power semiconductors, and concentrator photovoltaics, as well as to research and development applications. Its Data Storage segment designs and manufactures various technologies, including ion beam etch, ion beam deposition, diamond-like carbon, physical vapor deposition, chemical vapor deposition, and slicing, dicing, and lapping systems to create thin film magnetic heads that read and write data on hard disk drives. The company was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Plainview, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Victor Selva]

    On Nov. 21, Robert Karr bought Veeco Instruments Inc. (VECO), a company that designs, manufactures and markets equipment to make light emitting diodes (LEDs), solar panels, hard-disk drives and other devices.

  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    1. Veeco Industries will post a larger loss than analysts are expecting
    Veeco Industries (NASDAQ: VECO  ) is a provider of process equipment solutions that assist the making of LEDs, flexible OLEDs, power electronics, hard drives, MEMS, and wireless chips. Unfortunately for investors it also has been posting a lot of red ink lately.

Friday, April 25, 2014

The Opportunities of Geopolitical Conflict

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So far, 2014 has been a year of heightened geopolitical risk. Russia has annexed the Crimea region of Ukraine, Syria remains embroiled in a civil war, political protests continue in Egypt and Turkey, and North Korea has once again fired missiles into the sea to protest joint US-South Korea military exercises.

Earlier this month, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, pointed to these simmering geopolitical tensions as an impediment to global economic growth.

Geopolitical risk can affect a variety of asset classes, ranging from energy and gold to bonds and equities. In the energy space, Brent crude, essentially the equivalent of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), traded above $109 a barrel thanks to worries that Russia might make a play for more Ukrainian territory. While WTI also spiked, it finished the week essentially flat following a stronger than expected inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Even as oil prices are on the rise, so is production. In the US, the EIA reports that crude production average 7.5 million barrels per day (BPD) last year, 1 million BPD over 2012 and the highest annual rate since 1989. The agency estimates that production should run about 8.5 million BPD this year and hit 9.6 million BPD next year, the highest level of production since 1970.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which produces about 40 percent of the world's oil, is forecasting similar supply growth. This past January production rose by 28,000 BPD to 29.71 million BPD, largely thanks to increased production from Libya. Including America's production increase, non-OPEC countries are expected to boost their supply by 1.29 million BPD to 55.43 million BPD.

With consumption fore! cast to grow by about 1.3 million BPD in 2014, that leaves supply and demand in almost perfect balance, supporting strong oil prices even when and if the crisis in Ukraine abates.

Not only does that make energy stocks a compelling investment theme for the remainder of this year, given the impact of geopolitics on energy prices it also makes them an ideal hedge against instability. Energy stocks also happen to be one of the best bargains in the market right now.

According to data from FactSet, of the energy stocks included in the S&P 500 that have reported first quarter earnings so far, 75 percent have reported revenue that’s above estimates. That makes energy the best performing sector in terms of revenue beats in the quarter. On the other hand, the energy and financials sectors have reported the biggest decline in earnings as a result of higher operating expenses and lower production volumes.

That said, largely because of higher prices, analysts expect the energy sector to swing to double-digit profit growth in the remaining three quarters of 2014 and into 2015, making the sector an attractive bargain following the recent weakness.

There are a couple of ways to play the global energy sector in your portfolio.

The first is to focus on individual names, such as China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (NYSE: SNP), otherwise known as Sinopec.

While China's economic growth has been slowing over the past several quarters, energy consumption in the country has been growing. China accounted for one-third of the world's oil consumption growth last year, making the country the world's largest net importer of oil. By 2015, while China is expected to produce about 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, it will consume nearly 12 million.

That creates huge growth opportunities for Sinopec, an integrated oil company, which produces about 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day with refining capability for about 5 million. At the same time, the Chinese go! vernment ! has introduced a more market-based pricing mechanism that allows Sinopec to reap higher profits on its refined products.

However, Sinopec isn't a perfect hedge against geopolitical instability and its impact on oil prices. The company must import about 80 percent of the crude it uses so, while it can now pass on more of higher crude costs than it could in the past, it still has some degree of price exposure. Still, it's a great bet on growing global energy consumption.

China Petroleum & Chemical is a buy up to 120.

A less risky way to employ an energy hedge in your portfolio is with an exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as iShares Global Energy (NYSE: IXC).

This ETF holds positions in 93 companies and integrated oil and gas companies account for about half of assets, followed by exploration and production companies at a quarter of assets and equipment and services, pipelines and refiners all at less than 10 percent. With the exception of Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) at 14.9 percent of assets, none of the remaining 92 companies in the portfolio account for more than 8 percent of assets.

In geographical terms, 53.2 percent of the ETF’s assets are devoted to the US. While that is a sizable chunk, the fund also offers exposure to companies based in the United Kingdom, Canada, France, China, Australia and Brazil. And given the global nature of the energy business, even companies based in the US have limited exposure to the country.

The S&P 500 is only up 1.5 percent so far this year and the Dow is essentially flat, but iShares Global Energy has gained nearly 6 percent while most emerging market indexes are off by about 1.5 percent.

Additionally, the fund has a low 0.48 percent expense ratio, making it one of the cheapest global energy funds available. It also currently offers a 2.5 percent yield with a steadily growing semiannual payout.

Another compelling characteristic is that during the global turmoil sparked off the financial crisis, the E! TF was le! ss volatile than either the S&P 500 or the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, largely thanks to steady global energy demand.

Offering an effective downside hedge against geopolitical risk, iShares Global Energy is a buy under 50.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Are the Earnings at G-III Apparel Group Hiding Something?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on G-III Apparel Group (Nasdaq: GIII  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

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Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, G-III Apparel Group generated $64.3 million cash while it booked net income of $58.8 million. That means it turned 4.5% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at G-III Apparel Group look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 12.1% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, G-III Apparel Group investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 13.8% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 18.2% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Selling to fickle consumers is a tough business for G-III Apparel Group or anyone else in the space. But some companies are better equipped to face the future than others. In a new report, we'll give you the rundown on three companies that are setting themselves up to dominate retail. Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add G-III Apparel Group to My Watchlist.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Stellar Growth Ahead for Solar

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The Sun Provides

Nearly all of our energy sources derive from the sun. Coal, oil, and natural gas are all various forms of sunshine captured via photosynthesis and first stored away as biomass, and ultimately converted into fossil fuels. In addition to the ancient sunshine of fossil fuels, the sun's rays are directly captured in solar photovoltaic (PV) and solar heating applications.  The sun's rays are also converted into energy via biomass, which is used for heat, power, and to produce biofuels. Wind power is produced from winds that are created when the surface of the earth is heated unevenly. Hydroelectric power ultimately traces to the evaporation of water from heat, and the sun's gravitational force is partially responsible for the tides.

The only two major source of energy that don't derive directly from our sun are nuclear power and geothermal energy, and these together only account for about 5 percent of global energy consumption.

So when someone asks me what energy source will replace fossil fuels, I always say "solar power." That answer will almost certainly prove to be correct. But in order to be useful intelligence for an investor, we have to be a little more specific about what this means.

Solar Electricity

Solar PV is already making major inroads into the electrical generation industry. From 2007 through 2012, the solar PV industry has added capacity at an average annual rate of 60 percent.

140422telsolargrowth
Source: REN21′s 2013 Renewables Global Status Report

To date wind generation has grown at a faster rate than generation from solar PV, but based on solar's much faster rate of capacity installation and the fact that small scale solar is more universally applicable than small scale wind, in time solar PV wil! l likely grow to be a major provider of electricity. The contribution from solar PV is still small — only 0.4 percent of global electricity production in 2012. But that's 12 times higher than its contribution in 2007 — and the phenomenal growth looks set to continue.

The solar PV sector is likely to outperform the market averages over the next decade. However, it can be hard to find fair value in this hot sector, so it certainly helps to buy on extreme weakness when volatility and fear strike. For example, on Aug. 28 we recommended First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) to The Energy Strategist subscribers. Last month, we urged the same subscribers to take some money off the table after a gain of more than 80 percent. At the moment I see no real bargains in the sector, but First Solar is one that I would add on a significant correction. Over the long haul the solar PV sector looks like a big winner, but you need to be selective with your entry points.  

What About Transportation Fuel?

Solar PV is making inroads into the electricity generation sector, but what about transportation fuels? Solar PV may play an important role there as well. As mentioned above, all biofuels are an indirect form of solar power, but there are ways to utilize solar PV for fuel production.

This past week I toured the ranch of  Henk Rogers on Hawaii's Big Island. Henk is an interesting character, best known for bringing the game "Tetris" — the world's most popular video game with over 125 million units sold — to handheld video game devices. Henk also holds the exclusive intellectual property rights to Tetris. Having made a fortune in the video gaming world, Henk has turned his attention to sustainable energy with his Blue Planet Foundation. (Rogers also supports the Hawaii Space Exploration Analog & Simulation, a long-duration simulated Mars exploration habitat 8,200 feet above sea level on Mauna Loa.)

Henk has built an energy lab on the Big Island where he is experimentin! g with a ! number of technologies for producing and storing energy. The roof over his lab is studded with 360 solar PV panels generating up to 85 kW of electricity — enough to power about 17 homes in Hawaii. But he is also using the electricity from the solar panels to produce hydrogen, which is used to supply the only hydrogen refueling station on the Big Island.   

As I explained last week in One More 'Free Lunch' in Energy, it always takes more energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen than you can get back from burning the hydrogen. But such a scheme might make sense in some instances if the electricity is cheap. At times renewable energy installations may produce more power than the grid can absorb, and it could be directed into electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen for later consumption. In this way, the hydrogen is acting like an energy storage device.

Hydrogen can be used either directly in a combustion engine (where the combustion product is simply water) or, more efficiently, in a fuel cell that converts chemical energy into electricity. Fuel cells are still quite expensive, but they can be used to provide backup electrical power or to power a vehicle. Henk's lab is experimenting with fuel cells from several manufacturers, including Plug Power (Nasdaq: PLUG) — which incidentally has seen its share price rise more than 40-fold over the past 12 months.

Henk's team is also experimenting with various battery storage technologies. They had a vanadium-redox flow stack, as well as a bank of lithium iron phosphate batteries from Sony. I discussed the problem of energy storage with Blue Planet Research's Chief Technology Officer Vincent Paul Ponthieux, and we both agree that cost effective energy storage is a critically important enabler of a future powered by solar energy.

140422telhydrogenpumppic
Vincent Paul Ponthieux a! nd I at t! he Big Island's only hydrogen refueling station

Given that this is a small experimental facility for hydrogen production, it is not expected that it will be cost effective. However, it is worth mentioning the costs to keep things in perspective. To produce hydrogen from the solar PV panels at Henk Rogers' ranch requires an electrolyzer that cost $125,000. That electrolyzer is capable of producing 12 kilograms of hydrogen a day. Those 12 kilograms of hydrogen contain the energy content of about 12 gallons of gasoline. Thus, over the course of a year that $125,000 electrolyzer might produce hydrogen with the energy equivalent of $10,000 to $15,000 worth of gasoline. But these costs are expected to go down as the system is scaled up.

Conclusions

Still, one could easily envision a future in which solar PV is producing electricity to power our homes and electric cars and getting stored in batteries for later use. Alternatively, excess solar could be used to produce hydrogen for use in an internal combustion engine or in a hydrogen fuel cell. The solar PV sector will be a big winner in this scenario.

This is one vision of life after fossil fuels. Parts of the vision are already coming to fruition with the rise of renewable power in electricity production. For the foreseeable future, this is likely to be the biggest growth area, with coal ultimately the biggest casualty. But in the longer term, don't be surprised to see solar PV-derived transportation fuels making bigger inroads.  

(Follow Robert Rapier on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook.)

 

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Weak Sales Take a Toll on McDonald's Profit

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McDonald's profit slips amid weak sales David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images NEW YORK -- McDonald's said that its profit slipped in the first quarter as global sales remained weak for the world's biggest hamburger chain. The Oak Brook, Ill.-based company said global sales edged up 0.5 percent at established restaurants. In the flagship U.S. market, the figure fell 1.7 percent as customer traffic declined. The company cited "challenging industry dynamics and severe winter weather." It said global sales for April are expected to be modestly positive. April would reflect the first full month that Taco Bell has offered its national breakfast menu, which it has pitched a challenge to McDonald's dominance in the morning hours. The decline in sales and customer traffic in the U.S. reflects the struggles McDonald's (MCD) is facing as eating habits change and competition intensifies. After a decade of growth, annual sales at established U.S. locations fell for the first time last year. The continued decline in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2014 is in stark contrast to Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which last week said sales at established locations rose 13.4 percent. McDonald's CEO Don Thompson has noted in the past there seemed to be a split in the fast-food industry, with people who have more spending money heading off the chains that charge more. He said McDonald's will focus on underscoring value for its more cash-strapped customers, but the chain is also offering more premium offerings such as its new Bacon Clubhouse Burger. In a statement Tuesday, Thompson said McDonald's is focusing "creating the best overall experience for our customers." To adapt to shifting trends, for instance, the chain has been rolling out new prep tables in its U.S. kitchens that can hold more sauces and toppings. The idea is to eventually offer greater customization on its menu while keeping orders easy to assemble for workers. Speed and accuracy have been an issue for McDonald's as it stepped up the pace of new menu items in the past year. In Europe, McDonald's said sales rose 1.4 percent at established locations in the latest quarter. The figure rose 0.8 percent in the unit that encompasses Asia, the Middle East and Africa, despite a decline in traffic. For the quarter ended March 31, net income fell to $1.2 billion, or $1.21 a share. Analysts expected $1.24 a share. A year ago, the company earned $1.27 billion, or $1.26 a share. McDonald's noted that the year-ago results were boosted by income tax benefits. Revenue edged up to $6.7 billion, but was shy of the $6.71 billion Wall Street expected.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Business investment outlook brightens

Businesses may finally be ready to spend the $1.6 trillion in cash they've been hoarding. And that's good for the economy.

A survey out today shows 61% of corporate economists say their firms will likely increase capital spending in the next year. That's up from an average 52% in the past four quarterly surveys by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE).

Companies with big spending plans include Whirlpool. It's investing $40 million to double the size of its KitchenAid mixer factory in Greenville, Ohio, and add 400 jobs there by 2018.

Finishing Professionals in Denver, which coats metal parts, recently spent nearly $1 million to automate one assembly line and add a second, says owner Dan Cahill. The economy has improved enough, Cahill says, that his customers say they'll place steady orders.

Business investment in equipment and buildings drives economic growth because the companies they buy from hire workers to meet the rising demand. Factories that buy new machines often must bring on employees to operate them.

Capital spending surged early in the recovery that began in 2009 as firms replaced worn-out equipment. It slowed in 2013 because manufacturers still had lots of spare capacity, says UBS economist Maury Harris.

He sees an upswing coming. In March, the portion of production capacity used by manufacturers, utilities and mining companies rose to a post-recession high of 79.2%, the Federal Reserve reported.. Harris says 80% is a "tipping point" at which business equipment purchases surge.

Other factors fueling spending:

• Easier lending standards. About 14% of large banks surveyed by the Fed in January had eased their credit standards for large and midsize firms the previous three months. None had tightened standards.

• Slower productivity growth. Productivity, or output per labor hour, surged early in the recovery as companies squeezed more out of fewer workers. Growth slowed the past three years, and firms are eager to reverse! the trend by adding technology, says economist Tom Porcelli of RBC Capital Markets.

• Rising business confidence. Credit the two-year budget deal that Congress reached in December. "There's less uncertainty," says NABE President Jack Kleinhenz.

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Is Navigant Consulting a Cash Machine?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Navigant Consulting (NYSE: NCI  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Navigant Consulting generated $71.2 million cash while it booked net income of $48.3 million. That means it turned 9.6% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Navigant Consulting look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 33.6% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Navigant Consulting investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 17.4% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from changes in accounts receivable, which represented 25.3% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Looking for alternatives to Navigant Consulting? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Navigant Consulting to My Watchlist.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Why Agilysys Shares Soared

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Agilysys (NASDAQ: AGYS  ) have soared today by as much as 11% after the company reported earnings.

So what: Revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter rose 21% to $63 million, with the company's retail segment driving nearly all of those gains. Non-GAAP net income per share came in at $0.15, swinging into the black relative to the $0.16 per share adjusted loss a year ago. CEO James Dennedy said the company outperformed its expectations for the year.

Now what: The company recently announced that it was divesting its retail group for roughly $35 million, which is expected to close later this summer. The consolidated figures include the retail segment's results. After the deal closes, Agilysys intends to focus its efforts exclusively on its hospitality business, which grew a modest 3% this quarter. Dennedy said the company plans to continue investing in the hospitality business, which may include acquisitions, to drive future growth.

Interested in more info on Agilysys? Add it to your watchlist by clicking here.

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Friday, April 18, 2014

Weibo (WB) Stock Rises After IPO

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Weibo  (WB), the Chinese social media company that has been described as the country's equivalent to Twitter  (TWTR), rose on Thursday, its first day of trading after its IPO.

The company raised $286 million by pricing its initial public offering of 16.8 million shares, 16% fewer than expected, at $17 a share. That price was at the low end of the expected $17 to $19 range.

The stock opened at $16.27 at noon, but quickly recovered and rose more than 10% to a high of $19.46 as of 12:25 p.m., by which point more than 12 million shares had changed hands.

Must Read: Warren Buffett's 10 Favorite Growth Stocks STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more. WB Chart

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WB data by YCharts STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more.

Stock quotes in this article: WB, TWTR 

Thursday, April 17, 2014

3 Momentum Stocks That Have Fallen Into Bear Markets

Twitter Logo LinkedIn Logo Google Plus Logo RSS Logo Anthony Mirhaydari Popular Posts: How Much Lower Will Tesla Stock Go?3 Airline Stocks to Sell or Short4 Reasons the Selloff Will Continue Recent Posts: 3 Momentum Stocks That Have Fallen Into Bear Markets How Much Lower Will Tesla Stock Go? Nasdaq Pummeled as Trouble in Asia Escalates View All Posts

For the first time since 2012, investors are contending with some serious market volatility. The vicious whipsaws were on display Tuesday as stocks launched higher after the both the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq Composite threatened to fall below their 200-day moving averages for the first time in three years.

041614Russell2000 300x183 3 Momentum Stocks That Have Fallen Into Bear Markets
Click to Enlarge The selling has been led by a breakdown in momentum stocks that hedge funds and retail investors alike piled into. Many are already down more than 20% from their highs.

And while that has been a drag on parts of the market — especially the tech- and biotech-sensitive Nasdaq (which was down 7% from recent highs) — we haven’t seen the damage hit the overall market really hard just yet: The S&P 500, for instance, is only down 1.6% from its all-time high. The credit markets are also holding up, with corporate bonds resilient.

But like a cancer, the weakness is spreading. Over the past few days, airline stocks — also an area that enjoyed strong price momentum over the last two years — started rolling over.

Here are three momentum stocks at the center of this new selling pressure that, while bouncing a bit today, have already succumbed to bear markets of their own. Like a cancer, you should consider cutting them out of your portfolio. And if you’re more aggressive, they are attractive short side or put option candidates.

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Bear Market Momentum Stocks: Tesla Motors (TSLA)

041614TSLA 300x247 3 Momentum Stocks That Have Fallen Into Bear Markets
Click to EnlargeTesla Motors (TSLA), everyone’s favorite electric-car maker, is down nearly 27% from its late February peak and has been diving toward its 200-day moving average — a level that hasn’t been breached since September 2012.

Excitement in TSLA has been driven by a number of things, such as an eventual release of the more affordable Model E, or the much-vaunted plans for the Gigafactory — the jumbo-sized battery factory that Tesla estimates by 2020 will exceed 2013 global battery production.

TSLA stock at one point boasted 684% returns within the past year, but it’s all unraveling now. Even in the midst of a small short-term rebound, Tesla still appears to be succumbing to its worst breakdown since last November.

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Bear Market Momentum Stocks: Amazon (AMZN)

041614AMZN 300x247 3 Momentum Stocks That Have Fallen Into Bear Markets
Click to Enlarge The unveiling of the new Fire TV set-top box and reports that the company is prepping the launch of a new glasses-free 3D smartphone later this year hasn’t been able to stem the slide in Amazon (AMZN) as investors lose faith in the growth first, profits later strategy of the Seattle-based online retail behemoth.

AMZN stock is down nearly 22% from its January high, and has fallen dramatically from the head fake rebound seen in February and early March. From the March high alone, AMZN is down 16.8%.

In mid-March, I recommended the April $350 AMZN puts to my Edge Letter Pro clients, a position we just closed for a gain of nearly 340% — which goes to show you how lucrative betting against the herd can be when the panicked exits begin.

Hot Casino Stocks To Own Right Now

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Bear Market Momentum Stocks: Facebook (FB)

041614FB 300x247 3 Momentum Stocks That Have Fallen Into Bear Markets
Click to Enlarge The acquisition of VR headset maker Oculus Rift and word the company is moving into the electronic payments market hasn’t been able to reverse the slide in Facebook (FB) stock, which is drifting in and out of bear market territory as I write this — down about 20% from its March high.

Like Amazon, I recommended put options against FB stock in mid-March to my Edge Letter Pro clients. Specifically, the April $65 calls that we just closed for a gain of 333%.

Anthony Mirhaydari is founder of the Edge and Edge Pro investment advisory newsletters, as well as Mirhaydari Capital Management, a registered investment advisory firm.